America's Electoral Faultlines
Trump's recent victory reveals several fascinating demographic trends across the West.
Written by Flynn Holman, find more of his content on 𝕏 @Flynn_Holman_
“They are not your protectors. They are not your providers. … They hate women. They hate POC. They do not give a damn about LGBTQ+. Let that sink in.”
“America is not safe for the majority of people anymore … So long as our government fails to represent America’s true diversity – this will always be the case. White male leadership is a lie.”
“I greatly fear for the type of America that my children could inhabit with a man like this having incredibly harmful opinions like this being the mainstream.”
These are just some of the comments published in the wake of the historic re-election of Donald Trump to the American Presidency. The depths of Reddit may not be the place to go searching for nuanced political commentary, but they give an insight into the mindset of liberals across America as they seethe about a second Trump administration. What is most notable about these comments is the sheer level of vitriol targeted toward one demographic in particular: white men. As the final votes are counted, it is becoming clear how demographic differences have driven America toward the first (officially) popularly elected Republican president in 20 years.
Demographic breakdowns of voting data are a uniquity of American elections. Unfortunately for Australia, publicly available data of a similar nature does not readily exist, but the cultural and political similarity of our nations make the demographic trends in American political preference informative towards the development of Australian politics. As recently published in The National Observer, Australia’s voting electorate has begun to mirror trends seen in America pre-2016. Young male voters are turning away from progressive policies, such as the Aboriginal voice, and coming out to support conservative candidates in much larger numbers than their millennial predecessors. In this way, the 2024 American Presidential election offers unique insight into how demographic divisions could influence Australian politics for the years ahead.
One of the most apparent trends in American politics has been the growing political divide between men and women. Across several exit polls conducted by the US mainstream media (NBC , Associated Press) male voters supported Trump over Harris by 13% on average, with women voting for Harris by 10%. This advantage grows when looking at the gender effect by racial group. Carrying over 60% of the white male vote, Trump clearly asserted his dominance over his core white male demographic. Black people, as much as Republican boomer campaign managers wish otherwise, strongly voted Democratic, as they always do. However, a stark divide was recorded among the Hispanic population. Strong gains were seen particularly among Latino men, who voted for Trump over Harris by 13%. This represented a near 20-point divide between Latino men and women (who were convincingly won by Harris). This can be attributed to this group’s working-class foundation, to which Trump’s economic policies no doubt appeal, and the strong Christian roots of these communities, particularly among young working-class men. Christians overwhelmingly backed Trump, with Protestants recording a 46-point preference for Trump and Catholics a 26-point advantage.
The enduring and growing appeal of Trump to the average American man is no doubt a consequence of the commentary I began this article with. Many bitter leftist women opine about the danger of Trump’s rhetoric on women yet ignore the basic facts of how a gendered political landscape began. It was women who opened the door to gendered identity politics when they demanded the right to vote. Feminist and anti-male sentiment has long driven women to the polls as single-issue voters, and this election presents no change. Harris’ rhetoric was heavily focused on the so-called rights of women to abort babies, and this delivered her the endorsement of numerous female celebrities, and subsequently a strong female vote. Ultimately, the fate of the Harris campaign was sealed by focusing on women’s issues, because they are exactly that – women’s issues. Men are tired of the hatred thrown at them by women as they push to win over their ‘sisters’. We are told we hate women; our leadership is dangerous and our opinions harmful. Human history suggests this is patently false. Men have successfully led societies for millennia, and clearly these new and increasingly hysterical female attacks towards men are having a decisive impact on the politics of the male voter.
An interesting subset of these women voters are the white women. Despite the strong push of Harris’ campaign toward female voters, this demographic voted for Trump by 8 points. This result is quite revealing about the future of American politics. Even women realise they don’t want a female president. As one commentator noted this week, “The glass ceiling, … it’s a ceiling made of bricks.” Voters recognise that liberalism is the politics of the feminine, dominated by emotion, and this is why we consistently see men, rather than women, win on metrics of good leadership. In the same exit polling, voters were asked about the qualities of the candidates that appealed to them. Trump dominated on the ability to lead (66%) and the ability to bring about change (72%), characteristics of a strong leader, whilst Harris won over voters for caring about people like them (73%). Even when the electorate is presented with an ostensibly well-credentialed female candidate, her qualities are just not appealing for the office of President.
The other demographic that Trump saw remarkable improvement with was 18–29-year-old men. The level of Trump’s victory in this demographic remains somewhat unclear, with the AP Votecast exit poll recording a 14-point victory, whilst the Wall Street Journal suggests this demographic favoured Trump by 10 points, and CBS reports an even higher difference of 18 percentage points. These differences are likely a result of small sample sizes and geographic variation. What is readily apparent though is that Trump’s strategy of targeting disaffected young men, through targeted appearances on podcasts such as those run by Adin Ross and Joe Rogan, flipped to him a demographic won decisively by Joe Biden in 2020 (a swing of nearly 30 points). This is a remarkable result. There is a clear backlash in this demographic over feminine identity politics. We have grown up in an era where young men are increasingly the scapegoats of a radicalised feminine political class. Here at the National Observer, we have published about this phenomenon extensively and it is becoming increasingly apparent that this anti-white, male and Christian rhetoric is turning young men towards conservatism. With this decisive shift towards Trump within this demographic, young men are being discussed as critical to Trump’s victory. Our political relevance has grown, and this will force political parties to address their politics towards the concerns of our demographic and this is of course something we endeavour to replicate in Australia.
A historic election result in the United States has left inner-city women crying on TikTok, whilst men celebrate in the streets. Quite clearly the Democratic strategy of almost exclusively targeting women and minority communities has proven to be one of failure. An appeal to women’s issues, diversity, equity and inclusion and weak positioning on immigration and trade was thoroughly shunned by the American electorate. Even among historical left-leaning demographics, Democrats have fundamentally misjudged a rising backlash against the leftist line of thought.
This bodes well for the Australian context, with a federal election likely in March, the successes of Trump’s campaign over recent months should embolden our right wing to embrace some of his campaign strategies and target a similar base. We should not feel dejected about our own politics, because now is the time we must act to ensure we have the right infrastructure and institution in place to capitalise on the coming shift in public opinion. We will have our ‘Trump moment.’ It will not be the same as in the United States, but that does not mean it can’t have a similar impact. We have a unique political landscape from our party structure to our voting and parliamentary systems and our politics are running 10 years behind our counterparts in the Anglosphere. But this gives us the advantage of learning from past failures and enables us to capitalise on the best components of American and European nationalism. As leftist rhetoric is sharpened against more and more of the electorate, their influence on the generational and demographic shifts of this recent presidential election foreshadows our next opportunities in restoring Australian excellence. We are entering a new era of politics, and that is something to be whitepilled about.