Are White Australians being replaced?

The media says it's a conspiracy theory, the data says otherwise. [5 Minute Read]

Data and maps by Flynn Holman, find more of his content on 𝕏 @Flynn_Holman_, Article by John Lawson

In 2001, American Presidential Candidate Patrick J. Buchanan published his book ‘The Death of the West’ in which he forecasted the demography of various Western nations in the year 2050, when he came to the land down under he stated that; “In Australia, a nation of only 19 million, where the white birthrate is now below replacement levels, the European population will have begun to disappear.” He was not the first, or last, to speak of this demographic replacement.

Before Buchanan, in 1996 Pauline Hanson in her maiden speech made the bold statement that if Australia’s immigration policy was not seriously reassessed it was her belief that “We are in danger of being swamped by Asians”, a statement which immediately sent mainstream media, academia and the major parties into a flurry of denouncements, disavowals and, of course, countless accusations of ‘racism’.

Before Senator Hanson, in 1995 Western Australian MP Graeme Campbell published his book ‘Australia Betrayed’, in which he criticised several aspects of Australian multiculturalism, noting that: “Even a report by the Bureau of Immigration Research has supported this, though high immigration spokesmen had earlier contended that immigration was needed to offset a supposed population decline which would result from Australia being below replacement fertility levels.” He was subsequently ousted from the Labor Party.

Before Campbell, in 1984 best selling author, Australian historian, academic and commentator Geoffrey Norman Blainey, criticised the rate of Asian immigration into Australia and warned of the social problems that would result from it, MP Campbell recounts that Blainey “criticised the policy of multiculturalism and noted that during his time on the Australia Council he was directed by the government to give preference in funding to people of ethnic background.” Blainey’s fellow academics savagely attacked him for this remark.

Before Blainey, Arthur A. Calwell, Federal Labor leader from 1960-67, wrote in his 1972 book ‘Be Just and Fear Not’ the bold proclamation; “any man who tries to stigmatise the Australian community as racist because they want to preserve this country for the white race is doing our nation great harm... I reject, in conscience, the idea that Australia should or ever can become a multi-racial society and survive.”

Long before Calwell, Australian historian, educationist, politician and journalist Charles Henry Pearson in 1893, published ‘National Life and Character, a Forecast’, in which he prophetically warned that “The day will come, and perhaps is not far distant, when the European observer will look round to see the globe girdled with a continuous zone of the black and yellow races, no longer too weak for aggression or under tutelage, but independent, or practically so, in government, monopolising the trade of their own regions, and circumscribing the industry of the Europeans” In 1902 Prime Minister Edmund Barton quoted this segment of Pearson’s book while addressing a crowd.

According to our mainstream media and academia, the above quoted men and women from extremely disparate backgrounds and time periods are not only lying, but doing so with malicious intent. Anytime the claim that White Australians are being replaced is referenced by mainstream media figures or academics it is almost always accompanied by various adjectives intended to discredit it. The Sydney Morning Herald, news.com.au and Monash University have all declared it a ‘conspiracy theory’, and the Guardian has labeled the theory ‘racist’. Unfortunately for these political partisans, the only two adjectives the National Observer team is concerned with are ‘true’ and ‘false’, so we decided to take a look at the data ourselves and conclusively answer the question, are White Australians being replaced by non-Whites as a result of government policy?

Over the course of the last several weeks an anonymous member of the National Observer research team, @Flynn_Holman_ on 𝕏, took it upon himself to carefully sift through the official population data published by the Australian Bureau of Statistics and painstakingly produce the following maps displaying the largest migrant population per region in each of Australia’s major cities.

As is clear in the maps above, over the course of the last two decades the Australia government has sourced increasingly less of its migrant population from White-European nations and has instead admitted increasing amounts from the various non-White nations with a significant portion of this new migrant population arriving from various Asian nations. For a breakdown of the various Asian ethnicities that dominate migrant populations in the orange portions of the above maps I will direct you to the interactive SBS multiculturalism map, though for the purpose of this article this level of detail is unnecessary. Simply by pairing the above 2001-2021 maps with other datasets we are able to answer the question posed in the title of this article.

Demonstrating the growth of Australia’s non-White population satisfies half the definition of ‘replacement’, it’s worth bearing in mind that were Australia’s White-European population growing in conjunction with Australia’s non-White population the data presented above would not demonstrate replacement. Unfortunately, when paired with birthrate data we can determine conclusively that the growing non-White population is demonstrably taking the place of Australia’s White population.

Below are some maps created based upon ABS birthrate data, credit for these great data visualisations belongs to the account ‘nonebusinesshey’ who originally posted them to a 𝕏. The maps have been colour-coded to represent the each regions corresponding total fertility rate (TFR), a measure of the number of children per woman. Any region with less than 2 children born per woman has a below-replacement birthrate and (excluding immigration) is undergoing a population decline.

By comparing all the above maps we can observe that most non-white immigrants are congregating in the inner-city areas where White-European brith rates are lowest. Australia’s population is highly urbanised, with 61% of our total population residing in our top 5 most populous cities alone and another 22.6% residing in the next 45 largest cities and towns meaning that below-replacement birth rates in these urban hubs is having a seismic impact on Australia’s shifting demography.

From ancestry data we can say with reasonable certainty that in 2001 White-Europeans accounted for ~86% of Australia’s population and that in 2021 that number had sunk to ~70%. ABS data is notoriously unreliable regarding ancestry so It’s worth explaining the process we used to ascertain these numbers; The National Observer team took the non-White ancestries and the ‘other’ category, added them and divided by the population total to determine the non-White population as a percentage. This means that individuals with mixed heritage who nominated both their backgrounds on the census will be double counted, though we believe this will not skew numbers significantly. So taking all this into account, and assuming that the immigration rate remains the same as the last two decades, our best estimate shows Australia’s White population declining to 50% as early as 2034.

One medium-term impact of this population shift is the so-called ‘White Flight’ that is likely to result from it. We know that one effect of increasing diversity in an area is a general degradation of community, which in turn pushes families, especially those with children to move elsewhere, thus accelerating the demographic transformation of certain regions of the nation. If these trends continue unchanged, Australian cities will grow increasingly diverse and increasingly non-White, while Australia’s interiors and regions experience a very gradual growth in their White population. Considering that the centres of power in our country, as is the case in any country, are her major cities and commerce hubs we can reasonably expect that our most powerful business leaders, politicians and academics will increasingly be formed from populations with no link to the heritage, culture or ancestry of Australia’s founders, current population or inland population. Considering the present left-leaning voting patterns of these non-White populations, it is reasonable to expect this trend to become irreversible the voting power of the White-European population is eroded.

To conclude, I’d like to quote, of all things, an article published by the ABC in 2016. For all their obfuscation throughout, this article fact-checking Pauline Hanson’s maiden speech corroborates everything I have written in this article:

“In 1996, the proportion of the Australian population born in South-East Asia, north-east Asia or southern and central Asia was 4.78 per cent…The proportion of people in Australia who were born in Asia almost doubled between 1996 and 2011. By 2011, the proportion of people in Australia who were born in Asia had almost doubled to 8.08 per cent. The proportion of people born in Australia fell from 73.93 per cent to 69.83 per cent — more than eight times the proportion of people born in Asia. The proportion of people born in Australia has declined over the past four censuses.”

On the topic of immigration, the article mentions the same trends observable in our above published graphs, namely that:

“‘There's been increases in migration [since 1996] from just about all countries, except [those in] Europe,’ Professor Raymer said.
‘The only major migrant groups that haven't grown are north-west Europe, south-west Europe has declined, and the UK has basically held flat.’”

and on the topic of demographic change in Hurstville, the article once again can find no fault in Senator Hanson’s remarks:

“The proportion of Hurstville SLA residents born in Asia relative to the rest of the population, at 10.7 per cent, was much higher than the national average in 1996.

By 2011, that rate had risen to be 2.5 times higher, at 25.64 per cent, meaning one in four residents were born in Asia.”

Of course, the ABC believes this demographic trend is extremely beneficial for Australia and makes no mention of possible drawbacks, this has become a noticeable trend when it comes to mainstream media reporting on this demographic trend in both Australia and in the Western nations - the great replacement isn’t happening, its good that it is.

So, are White Australians being replaced by non-Whites as a result of government policy? The answer is an unequivocal, yes.
I guess the ‘racist’ ‘conspiracy theorists’ were right. again.