Written by foreign policy graduate Percy Spender, find more of his content on 𝕏 @PercySpender
Across the West, liberalism as a political persuasion is dying a slow death.
The energy of Ron Paul and the Tea Party Movement has been reduced to dying embers, particularly amongst Generation Z. The political polarisation of the 2010s has shifted voters away from the centre to more hardline attitudes, tearing the libertarian position apart from both the Left and Right. The rise of Donald Trump in 2016 created a more conservative culture on the right. Differing from previous Republican libertarians, like Ron Paul, Trump imposed government intervention in the economy in favour of a more protectionist ideology, introducing tariffs and modifying the NAFTA free trade agreement. Socially, Trump ushered in a return to more conservative social beliefs, such as a tougher stance on immigration and LGBTQ+ rights. Attempts to influence Trump to adopt libertarian policy have come from Peter Thiel the billionaire Republican mega-doner. Thiel had some success pushing Trump to be more open to legal immigration and loosening H1B Visa restrictions, which materialised in the 2019 State of the Union address during which Trump stated that he wants migrants at ‘the largest number ever’ and suffered backlash from Republican voters causing him to since revert from this unpopular position.
Now in 2024, Trump has solidified control over the Republican Party and the voter base, it is unlikely we’ll see a libertarian ideology become as popular as it was prior to his descent down the golden escalator. Republican congress members Rand Paul and Thomas Massie are the most liberal-minded members of the Republican party, but conservative Generation Z voters do not find these two appealing, other than a fleeting spotlight provided by Covid where Paul could lambast health officials over lockdowns attacking civil liberties. Despite these short videos going viral in the Covid era, it is unlikely Paul and Massie stand a chance of recapturing this demographic in the 2028 Primaries. Especially once considering the success Vivek Ramaswamy, a Trump acolyte, has had engaging with the youth through social media and his short lived 2024 Republican Primary campaign.
So, libertarianism will not find a home in the Republican party for some time, but how about the Democrat party? The Democrats have had a long-standing tradition of ‘Big Government,’ beginning with Franklin Roosevelt’s New Deal legislation and evolving over the last century to incorporate more social welfare programs and safety nets. From Lyndon Johnson to Bill Clinton these policies became a staple in Democrat rhetoric, tax increases were a part of the package to fund the expenses, going against the low tax core value of libertarians. Culminating with Obama and his ambitious healthcare policy, coupled with increased taxes, there is little room for libertarian-minded candidates to exist let alone run on a Democrat presidential ticket. Recently, Tulsi Gabbard was perhaps the most prominent, libertarian member of the Democrat party until she left to become an independent in 2022 citing irreconcilable differences. Libertarianism has no home in either the Democrat or Republican parties.
Enter Milei. Social media is rich with videos of the highly animated Milei ranting about government bureaucracy and criticising socialism. Being proliferated by prominent liberal-leaning accounts such as Elon Musk and John Ruddick, NSW Libertarian Party’s lead candidate, as well as a very popular interview with Tucker Carlson, sitting at 428 Million views on X alone. Milei has become a global figurehead of liberalism. The ultimate make or break to breathe fresh air into the ideology, the potential to excite and win over Generation Z rests solely on the success of his radical policies in Argentina. Which, fascinatingly, comes at a perfect time, the boom of the electric car manufacture and with it increased demand of lithium, which Milei can use Argentina’s vast reserves to facilitate a strong economy. Proving that a libertarian approach can end an economic crisis could reignite liberalism’s popularity amongst the Centre and centre-right political circles.
Earlier in the year, Milei met with Elon Musk where reports emerged that the meeting emphasised the need for free markets, also alluding to trade agreement. Many assume that Musk is keen to finalise a deal with Milei and secure a reliable supply of lithium for Tesla’s battery manufacture. Argentina enjoys the largest share of salt-lake lithium in the world, having 19.3 million tons which constitutes 21% of global supply. Argentina has also faced chronic underdevelopment of infrastructure, leaving this massive lithium store unexploited.
Have the stars aligned for liberalism? Could this unorthodox political rockstar resurrect the ailing ideology? Only time will tell.