Multipolarity Rising in the South Pacific

Australia's foreign policy is defined by its proximity and relationship with China, so where does Indonesia come in?

Written by Percy Spender, find more of his content on 𝕏 @PercySpender

In February 2024 Indonesia will hold its highly awaited presidential and parliamentary elections. The United States and China are vying for influence over the new government. Indonesia is the fourth most populous country and boasts a massive economy, which is predicted to become the sixth largest by 2027. These upcoming elections will be a key struggle between the West and China in its trade cold war over the highly strategic Indo-Pacific region and the electoral outcome will have far-reaching complications.

Traditionally Indonesia has pursued a non-alignment foreign policy, which was maintained all throughout the Cold War. This direction was implemented by Indonesia’s first president Sukarno, who even held conferences for emerging economies, such as the numerous African and Asian states, seeking to avoid being drawn into ideological conflicts and trade wars. However, former Jakarta Governor Anies Baswedan is considered as a close ally of the United States and will end Indonesia’s non-aligned history.

Recent polling puts his favourability around 20-24%, while the favourite Prabowo, who supports non-alignment, enjoys around 35-40%. A third candidate Ganjar also has round 20- 30% favourability. Current incumbent president, Joko Widodo is ineligible to run for another term as the Indonesian constitution limits a president to two terms. China will be very interested in keeping Baswedan from winning and the United States attaining a strong influence over the Southeast Asian state.

In the 2017 Jakarta governor elections, Baswedan ran a campaign appealing to hardliner Islamist voters and attack his opponents’ Christian beliefs. Since he has attempted to rebrand himself as more moderate. Interestingly a controversy is surrounding Prabowo, his key opponent and leader in the polls, and his ticket choice for vice president is the son of the incumbent president Joko recently allowed by a loophole created by the Indonesia high court. Polling firms are beginning to report a rising sentiment against this perceived nepotism, which could end playing into the West’s pick Baswedan.

Indonesia enjoys good relations with both China and the United States. Over the past few months Indonesia has conducted deeper comprehensive partnerships with both. China in particular plays an important role in Indonesia’s economy and rise as regional power. An Baswedan election victory could jeopardise this by running trade and investment ties with China. Indonesia is an important partner in China’s Belt and Road Initiative, and they have very good relations, even to the point where China allowed Indonesia to refinance their loans in a favourable manner.

With the election in just three months these factors, identity politics and nepotism, coupled with Western influence with propaganda warfare could result Baswedan gaining in the polls.