Our Nationalist Neighbour

Reflecting on the New Zealand First party's recent electoral success and what Australians can learn from it. [6 Minute Read]

For most Australians, ‘right-wing minor party’ is probably a synonym for ‘corruption’, ‘failure’ and ‘personality cult’ - in many ways they would be right. An authentic Australian right has for a long time been electorally handicapped by these ailments.

Perhaps most emblematic of this is Pauline Hanson’s One Nation which has, oftentimes to the exclusion of success, revolved around Hanson herself. Mark Latham’s recent departure from the party is emblematic of this fact though she is not alone. Clive Palmer’s United Australia Party is another example of how ego-centrism has limited political viability - had he contributed his resources to supporting One Nation rather than his own political party Australia might have had a successful populist right in parliament today. These parties have also drifted leftwards over time, compromising on key principles in a hopeless tactic to win mainstream acceptance and votes to a point where today the party’s are a shadow of their former selves without having gained anything for their compromise. This is without even examining the countless examples of micro parties, none of which have stood the test of time or secured any meaningful victory.

In stark contrast to this, just across the Tasman Sea is the New Zealand First party who, lead by Winston Peters recently secured 6.5% of the national vote and 8 seats in parliament. Though this may appear minor, this result will likely mean the other larger centre-right parties will be forced into forming a coalition government with NZF. I took the opportunity to reach out to some friends from the land of the long white cloud one who goes by the name @MasterVril on 𝕏 along with another who wished to remain anonymous and asked them about their thoughts on the New Zealand First Party and it’s future.

Below I have recorded their thoughts, before and after the election.

Pre-Election

National Observer:
I’ve heard claims that if elected, NZFirst will be the most right wing government in anglosphere, is this realistic?

Anonymous:
Well, we're quite certain, at this stage, that the coallition will be formed with New Zealand First (NZF).

Winston Peters and the NZF party is a strictly populist and Nationalist, "with a capital N", party.

I haven't ever known NZF to be a liberal party, to be honest. Their primary concern is the flourishing of New Zealand and the existing population of New Zealand, ie, they don't want to introduce more immigrants, and Winston Peters is well aware of the culture war, and I'm pretty sure he understands that fighting a culture war is necessary to achieving national prosperity while retaining and preserving an anglo-celtic/maori identity.

The thing with co-governance, is that there is an equal share in authority between NAT/ACT/NZF. National and Act are considered right wing parties here, but they are both considered neo-liberal, too. The NATS and ACT parties are only culturally right wing, for example, they are in disagreement with such things as men in women's toilets, but will not act on it to stop it, unlike NZF, who would definitely do that.

I would say that NZ would definitely have more of a right wing government than Australia, probably Britain too. It would be more right wing than USA as is, and, to be honest, even if and when Trump gets in, Winston will still be more right wing than Trump. He won't shill to Israel, and he is also against abortion and other such practices.

National Observer:
What can we expect from NZF if they win?

@MasterVril:

Well NZF is currently polling between 5 and 6% which on election night they usually score a point higher so maybe 6 to 7% of the vote. What would then happen is that a coalition would have to be formed with National and ACT. Now it’s maybe just a bit less than a 50/50 chance that Nat/ACT won't need them to form a government. However most people assume the Nats will want to bring them in even if they are have majority to make sure they have the numbers in 2026.

Now assuming this coalition forms, NZF will only be a small part of it and can only expect to have small policy gains. These most likely will come from the 2023 campaign bottom lines. The 3 large factions NZF pulled into their camp this election was the anti-vax, anti-Maori, and the anti-trans. I would then assume things like the abolition of all vaccine mandates and a formal enquiry into the covid response. The abolition of co-governance and the restoration of English as the primary language. ACT also have similar policies as well as sympathetic Nat MPs meaning they will probably go ahead. The last being anti-trans policies will not be allowed to go ahead.

National Observer:
Should the dissident right be excited about New Zealand First succeeding?

@MasterVril:

The party and the dissident right have overlapping aims. NZF is really just a civnat party and that's the only difference. About a decade ago the party stopped being so openly hostile to Asian migration when before they campaigned directly against the "Asian Invasion" and talked demographic change. Now they just say raw numbers need to drop and migrants need to "share our values".

Economically they are anti foreign investment and pro state development and wary of free markets which would also be in line with nationalists.

The impact on the broader right is that most people don't actually see them on the right and they themselves say they are in the centre. The mainstream right hate them because NZF have basically stalled the neoliberal reforms which many still see as incomplete. While socially they are hard to the right of everyone else but instinct tribalism means lots of rw voters don't see this. The media does treat them seriously however younger journos under 50 don't. They cant see the difference between how Winston campaigns and how he governs which are completely different to each other.

Post-Election

National Observer:
I was wondering if you had any thoughts post-election on the result. What does NZF success mean?

Anonymous:
As we expected, Winston did well at 6.5% for NZF, bringing back 8 seats to Parliament. As it stands, National and ACT only APPEAR to be able to form a government - but they can't/won't, and they will need Winston to do that. Right now, the three main things I can see happening are Winston:

a) becoming Deputy Prime Minister

b) becoming speaker of the house

c) bargaining for some bloody good portfolios

I am hoping for b), since Winston has already held Deputy Prime Minister in the past a few times, and it isn't that powerful a position, despite the street cred, and, because unlike bargaining for a nice portfolio/s, the speaker of the house can conduct an orchestra in like manner: even if the instruments in the orchestra are in bad condition, a good conductor goes a long way to produce quite a performance regardless. Just in general, a respectable populist powerhouse, such as Winston, being in the centre of the show, has the potential to urge powerful cultural shifts in Parliament.

NZF's success means that the NZ Parliament receives a staunchly nationalist "with a capital N", populist, conservative party in government co-allition with National and ACT. It means we have a spanner in the works. National and ACT are liberals, but because they are forced into the co-allition, they're going to have to consult our Kingmaker first, and they're going to have 8 MPs to answer to.

National Observer:
What’s next for New Zealand First?

Anonymous:
We simply can't know what NZF is going to do for sure, before these votes are all collected - we need to know what they are actually working with. But if you mean in general, I would say that Winston is going to act on some statements he's made on the "culture war" here in New Zealand. He's going to say some things, as he does, which is going to shock people and encourage conversation. He's a bit like New Zealand's Trump. So, I think New Zealand is going to begin to examine itself, as it pertains to issues which are being more widely recognized, like migration, population, foreign relations, climate debate, and race relations.

National Observer:
I wanted to ask what your thoughts were on the election result, NZF’s performance, where to next, what this will change etc

@MasterVril:

On the result we are still waiting for the special votes to be counted, but they usually favor the left meaning Labour or greens up 1 and the Nats down 1 seat. This pushes ACT and National down to 60 losing their majority so NZF will be required to get over the line.

On NZFs performance taken from 3 years ago it was a good campaign especially since they were polling low 2s even 1% and it's hard to get momentum when you aren't near the 5% threshold. However by bringing together the 3 minor cultural war issues Winston was able to get enough support especially by collapsing Democracy NZ and stealing their candidates. The result wasn't as good as the last couple weeks of polls however over the long term it was a good campaign.

From here coalition talks are underway and after the government is formed they need to not only deliver policy wins but keep an independent identity from the Nats and not let their achievements get claimed by them. Often smaller parties loose support when in government.

For the long term, the future isn't good since Winston is the Party, and the Party is Winston so once he leaves it is unlikely that it will be able to carry on, on it's own.

National Observer:
Do you have any thoughts on what the NZ Dissident Right should do from here? How the party can outgrow Winston in the future?

@MasterVril:

I don't think the party can really outlast Winston. What the dissident right needs to do is form a new organisation since the last one being Action Zealandia crumbled. I would prefer a more academic and ideas based discussion group rather than one that goes stickering and on Bush walks.